Obbligazione Centralna Vlada 1.125% ( XS2309428113 ) in EUR

Emittente Centralna Vlada
Prezzo di mercato 100 EUR  ▲ 
Paese  Croazia
Codice isin  XS2309428113 ( in EUR )
Tasso d'interesse 1.125% per anno ( pagato 1 volta l'anno)
Scadenza 04/03/2033 - Obbligazione è scaduto



Prospetto opuscolo dell'obbligazione Central Government: Republic of Croatia XS2309428113 in EUR 1.125%, scaduta


Importo minimo /
Importo totale /
Descrizione dettagliata Il governo centrale della Repubblica di Croazia è una repubblica parlamentare con un sistema presidenziale semi-presidenziale.

The Obbligazione issued by Centralna Vlada ( Croatia ) , in EUR, with the ISIN code XS2309428113, pays a coupon of 1.125% per year.
The coupons are paid 1 time per year and the Obbligazione maturity is 04/03/2033











REPUBLIC OF CROATIA


1,000,000,000 1.125 per cent. Notes due 2033
1,000,000,000 1.750 per cent. Notes due 2041

Issue price for the 2033 Notes: 98.538 per cent.
Issue price for the 2041 Notes: 99.366 per cent.
The issue price of the 1,000,000,000 1.125 per cent. Fixed Rate Notes due 2033 (the "2033 Notes") issued by the Republic of Croatia (the
"Issuer", the "Republic" or "Croatia"), will be 98.538 per cent. of their principal amount. The 2033 Notes will mature on 4 March 2033 at their
principal amount. The issue price of the 1,000,000,000 1.750 per cent. Fixed Rate Notes due 2041 (the "2041 Notes" and, together with the 2033
Notes, the "Notes" and each a "Series") issued by the Issuer, will be 99.366 per cent. of their principal amount. The 2041 Notes will mature on 4
March 2041 at their principal amount.
The 2033 Notes will be in registered form in denominations of 100,000 and integral multiples of 1,000 in excess thereof. Interest on the
2033 Notes will accrue at the rate of 1.125 per cent. per annum from and including 4 March 2021 and will be payable in Euro annually in arrear on
4 March in each year, commencing on 4 March 2022. Payments on the 2033 Notes will be made without withholding or deduction for or on account
of taxes imposed by the Issuer except to the extent described under "Terms and Conditions of the 2033 Notes -- Taxation".
The 2041 Notes will be in registered form in denominations of 100,000 and integral multiples of 1,000 in excess thereof. Interest on the
2041 Notes will accrue at the rate of 1.750 per cent. per annum from and including 4 March 2021 and will be payable in Euro annually in arrear on 4
March in each year, commencing on 4 March 2022. Payments on the 2041 Notes will be made without withholding or deduction for or on account of
taxes imposed by the Issuer except to the extent described under "Terms and Conditions of the 2041 Notes -- Taxation".
This Offering Circular does not constitute a prospectus pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2017/1129 (the "Prospectus Regulation") or Regulation
(EU) 2017/1129 as it forms part of United Kingdom ("UK") domestic law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (the "UK
Prospectus Regulation"). This Offering Circular also does not constitute a light prospectus pursuant to Part III of the Luxembourg Act dated 16 July
2019 on prospectuses for securities (the "Luxembourg Act"). Accordingly, this Offering Circular does not purport to meet the format and the
disclosure requirements of the Prospectus Regulation and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No. 2019/980 or the UK Prospectus Regulation
and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No. 2019/980 as it forms part of UK domestic law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act
2018 (the "EUWA"). This Offering Circular has not been, and will not be, submitted for approval to any competent authority within the meaning of
the Prospectus Regulation or the UK Prospectus Regulation and in particular the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier, in its capacity as
competent authority under the Prospectus Regulation or the UK Financial Conduct Authority, in its capacity as competent authority under the UK
Prospectus Regulation. Application has been made to the Luxembourg Stock Exchange for the Notes of each Series to be admitted to trading on the
Luxembourg Stock Exchange's regulated market and to be listed on the Official List of the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. The Luxembourg Stock
Exchange's regulated market is a regulated market for the purposes of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (Directive 2014/65/EU) (as
amended, "MiFID II").
The Issuer is rated Ba1 (stable outlook) by Moody's Investors Service, Inc. ("Moody's"), BBB- (stable outlook) by S&P Global Ratings Europe
Ltd. ("S&P"), and the Issuer has a long term foreign currency issuer default rating of BBB- (stable outlook) by Fitch Ratings Ltd. ("Fitch"). The
Notes will be rated Ba1 by Moody's, BBB- by S&P, and BBB- by Fitch. A rating is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and may be
subject to revision, suspension or withdrawal at any time by the assigning rating organisation. As at the date of this Offering Circular, S&P is
established in the European Economic Area ( the "EEA") and registered under Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 (as amended) (the "CRA Regulation"),
Fitch is established in the UK and registered under Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 as it forms part of UK domestic law by virtue of the EUWA (the
"UK CRA Regulation") and Moody's is neither established in the EEA nor in the UK and not registered under the CRA Regulation or the UK CRA
Regulation. The ratings of S&P have been endorsed by S&P Global Ratings UK Limited ("S&P UK") in accordance with the UK CRA Regulation
for use in the UK. The ratings of Fitch have been endorsed by Fitch Ratings Ireland Limited ("Fitch Europe") in accordance with the CRA Regulation
for use in the EEA. The ratings of Moody's have been endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd ("Moody's UK") in accordance with the UK CRA
Regulation for use in the UK and by Moody's Deutschland GmbH ("Moody's Europe") in accordance with the CRA Regulation for use in the EEA.
As such, each of S&P, Fitch Europe and Moody's Europe is included in the list of credit rating agencies published by the European Securities and
Markets Authority ("ESMA") on its website at https://www.esma.europa.eu/supervision/credit-rating-agencies/risk in accordance with the CRA
Regulation and each of Fitch, S&P UK and Moody's UK is included in the list of credit rating agencies published by the UK Financial Conduct
Authority (the "FCA") on its website at https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/credit-rating-agencies/registered-certified-cras. The list of registered and
certified rating agencies published by ESMA or the FCA on their respective websites is not conclusive evidence of the status of the relevant rating
agency included in such list, as there may be delays between certain supervisory measures being taken against a relevant rating agency and the
publication of the updated ESMA or FCA list. Certain information with respect to the credit rating agencies and ratings is set out in the sections
entitled "There can be no assurance that Croatia's credit ratings will not change" and "Credit Ratings may not reflect all risks" of this Offering
Circular.
The Notes have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), or any
state securities law, and may not be offered or sold within the United States except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to,
the registration requirements of the Securities Act.
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MIFID II product governance / Professional investors and eligible counterparties only target market ­ Solely for the purposes of each
manufacturer's product approval process, the target market assessment in respect of the Notes has led to the conclusion that: (i) the target market for
the Notes is eligible counterparties and professional clients only, each as defined in MiFID II; and (ii) all channels for distribution of the Notes to
eligible counterparties and professional clients are appropriate. Any person subsequently offering, selling or recommending the Notes (a
"distributor") should take into consideration the manufacturers' target market assessment; however, a distributor subject to MiFID II is responsible
for undertaking its own target market assessment in respect of the Notes (by either adopting or refining the manufacturer`s target market assessment)
and determining appropriate distribution channels.
The Notes in respect of each Series will initially be represented by a global certificate (each a "Global Certificate" and together the "Global
Certificates"), in registered form, without interest coupons attached and will be registered in the name of a nominee of a common safekeeper for
Clearstream Banking S.A. ("Clearstream, Luxembourg") and Euroclear Bank SA/NV ("Euroclear"), on or about 4 March 2021 (the "Closing
Date"). The Notes in respect of each Series will be issued in the New Safekeeping Structure ("NSS"). This means that the Notes are intended to be
registered in the name of a nominee of a common safekeeper for Euroclear and Clearstream, Luxembourg and does not necessarily mean that the
Notes will be recognised as eligible collateral for Eurosystem monetary policy and intra-day credit operations by the Eurosystem either upon issue or
at any or all times during their life. Such recognition will depend upon satisfaction of the Eurosystem eligibility criteria established by the European
Central Bank from time to time.
An investment in the Notes involves certain risks. See "Risk Factors" for a discussion of certain factors that should be considered in
connection with an investment in the Notes.
Joint Bookrunners and Joint Lead Managers
J.P. MORGAN
MORGAN STANLEY

SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE
ZAGREBACKA BANKA
CORPORATE & INVESTMENT BANKING
Joint Lead Manager
OTP BANK NYRT.

2 March 2021

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THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA


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The Issuer accepts responsibility for the information contained in this Offering Circular. To the best of the
knowledge of the Issuer (having taken all reasonable care to ensure that such is the case) the information
contained in this Offering Circular is in accordance with the facts and does not omit anything likely to
affect the import of such information. The Issuer, having made all reasonable enquiries, confirms that this
Offering Circular contains all information with respect to the Issuer and the Notes which is material in the
context of the issue and offering of the Notes, that the information contained in this Offering Circular is
true and accurate in every material respect and is not misleading, that the opinions and intentions
expressed in this Offering Circular are honestly held and that there are no other facts the omission of which
makes misleading any statement herein, whether of fact or opinion.
No person has been authorised in connection with the offering of the Notes to give any information or make
any representation regarding the Issuer or the Notes other than as contained in this Offering Circular. Any
such representation or information should not be relied upon as having been authorised by the Issuer or
any agency thereof or the Joint Lead Managers (as defined under "Subscription and Sale"). Neither the
delivery of this Offering Circular nor any sales made in connection with the issue of the Notes shall, under
any circumstances, constitute a representation that there has been no change in the affairs of the Issuer
since the date hereof.
The Joint Lead Managers make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or
completeness of the information in this Offering Circular. Each person receiving this Offering Circular
acknowledges that such person has not relied on any Joint Lead Manager or any person affiliated with any
Joint Lead Manager in connection with its investigation of the accuracy of such information or its
investment decision. Each person contemplating making an investment in the Notes must make its own
investigation and analysis of the creditworthiness of the Issuer and its own determination of the suitability
of any such investment, with particular reference to its own investment objectives and experience, and any
other factors which may be relevant to it in connection with such investment.
This Offering Circular does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation by or on behalf of the Issuer or any
agency thereof or any Joint Lead Manager to subscribe or purchase, any of the Notes. The distribution of
this Offering Circular and the offering of the Notes in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law.
Persons into whose possession this Offering Circular comes are required by the Joint Lead Managers to
inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions. For a description of certain further
restrictions on offers and sales of Notes and distribution of this Offering Circular, see "Subscription and
Sale".
Each potential investor in the Notes must determine the suitability of that investment in light of its own
circumstances. In particular, each potential investor should:
(i)
have sufficient knowledge and experience to make a meaningful evaluation of the Notes, the merits
and risks of investing in the Notes and the information contained in this Offering Circular or any
applicable supplement;
(ii)
have access to, and knowledge of, appropriate analytical tools to evaluate, in the context of its
particular financial situation, an investment in the Notes and the impact the Notes will have on its
overall investment portfolio;
(iii)
have sufficient financial resources and liquidity to bear all of the risks of an investment in the Notes,
including where the currency for principal or interest payments is different from the potential
investor's currency;
(iv)
understand thoroughly the terms of the Notes and be familiar with the behaviour of any relevant
financial markets; and
(v)
be able to evaluate (either alone or with the help of a financial adviser) possible scenarios for
economic, interest rate and other factors that may affect its investment and its ability to bear the
applicable risks.
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In this Offering Circular, all references to "HRK" and "kuna" are to the lawful currency for the time being
of the Issuer, all references to "", "EUR", "euro" and "Euro" are to the currency introduced at the start
of the third stage of European economic and monetary union pursuant to the Treaty on the Functioning of
the European Union, all references to "U.S. dollars", "US$" and "U.S.$" are to the lawful currency for the
time being of the United States of America and all references to "CHF" or "Swiss franc" are to Swiss
Francs. Certain amounts which appear in this Offering Circular have been subject to rounding
adjustments; accordingly, figures shown as totals may not be an arithmetic aggregation of the figures which
precede them. In this Offering Circular, unless the contrary intention appears, a reference to a law or a
provision of a law is a reference to that law or provision as extended, amended or re-enacted.
IN CONNECTION WITH THE ISSUE OF EACH SERIES, J.P. MORGAN AG AS STABILISATION
MANAGER (THE "STABILISATION MANAGER") (OR PERSONS ACTING ON BEHALF OF THE
STABILISATION MANAGER) MAY OVER-ALLOT NOTES OF A SERIES OR EFFECT
TRANSACTIONS WITH A VIEW TO SUPPORTING THE MARKET PRICE OF THE NOTES OF A
SERIES AT A LEVEL HIGHER THAN THAT WHICH MIGHT OTHERWISE PREVAIL. HOWEVER,
STABILISATION MAY NOT NECESSARILY OCCUR. ANY STABILISATION ACTION MAY
BEGIN ON OR AFTER THE DATE ON WHICH ADEQUATE PUBLIC DISCLOSURE OF THE
TERMS OF THE OFFER OF THE NOTES OF THE RELEVANT SERIES IS MADE AND, IF BEGUN,
MAY CEASE AT ANY TIME, BUT IT MUST END NO LATER THAN THE EARLIER OF 30 DAYS
AFTER THE ISSUE DATE OF THE NOTES AND 60 DAYS AFTER THE DATE OF THE
ALLOTMENT OF THE NOTES OF A SERIES. ANY STABILISATION ACTION OR OVER-
ALLOTMENT MUST BE CONDUCTED BY THE STABILISATION MANAGER (OR PERSONS
ACTING ON BEHALF OF THE STABILISATION MANAGER) IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL
APPLICABLE LAWS AND RULES.
NOTIFICATION UNDER SECTION 309B(1)(c) OF THE SECURITIES AND FUTURES ACT
(CHAPTER 289) OF SINGAPORE, AS MODIFIED OR AMENDED FROM TIME TO TIME (the
"SFA") - In connection with Section 309B of the SFA and the Securities and Futures (Capital Markets
Products) Regulations 2018 of Singapore (the "CMP Regulations 2018"), the Issuer has determined the
classification of the Notes as prescribed capital markets products (as defined in the CMP Regulations 2018)
and Excluded Investment Products (as defined in MAS Notice SFA 04-N12: Notice on the Sale of
Investment Products and MAS Notice FAA-N16: Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products).

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CONTENTS

Page
THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA .................................................................................................................. i
RISK FACTORS .......................................................................................................................................... 1
TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF THE 2033 NOTES .............................................................................. 11
TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF THE 2041 NOTES .............................................................................. 30
SUMMARY OF PROVISIONS RELATING TO THE NOTES WHILE IN GLOBAL FORM ............... 31
USE OF PROCEEDS ................................................................................................................................. 34
OVERVIEW OF THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA ................................................................................... 35
THE ECONOMY ....................................................................................................................................... 40
FOREIGN TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ......................................... 71
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM ..... 85
PUBLIC FINANCE ................................................................................................................................. 112
PUBLIC DEBT ........................................................................................................................................ 137
TAXATION ............................................................................................................................................. 146
SUBSCRIPTION AND SALE ................................................................................................................. 147
GENERAL INFORMATION .................................................................................................................. 150


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RISK FACTORS
Investment in the Notes involves a high degree of risk. Prospective investors should carefully consider the
following risk factors, together with the other information set out in this Offering Circular, before making a
decision to invest in the Notes and should understand that the risks set forth below could, individually or in
the aggregate, have a material adverse effect on Croatia's capacity to repay principal and make payments
of interest on the Notes or otherwise fulfil its obligations under the Notes. Most of these factors are
contingencies which may or may not occur and Croatia is not in a position to express a view on the likelihood
of any such contingency occurring. Additional risks and uncertainties not currently known to Croatia or that
Croatia currently deems to be immaterial may also materially affect Croatia's economy and its ability to
fulfil its obligations under the Notes. In any such case, investors may lose all or part of their investment in
the Notes. Words and expressions defined in "Terms and Conditions of the 2033 Notes" or in "Terms and
Conditions of the 2041 Notes" or elsewhere in this Offering Circular have the same meanings in this section.
Risk Factors Relating to Croatia
Having acceded to the European Union ("EU") on the back of a raft of legal, economic, financial and
other reforms and policies, Croatia is undergoing a period of transition which may adversely affect the
Croatian economy and Croatia's ability to repay principal and make payments of interest on the Notes
On 1 July 2013, Croatia joined the EU and became its 28th member state. To facilitate this, the Government
of Croatia (the "Government") introduced structural measures in 2012 and 2013 with the aim of
strengthening the quality of public finances and bringing political, economic and judicial structures in line
with EU requirements.
Croatia has also undergone and continues to undergo changes in legislation due to its EU accession. As a
result, there is a lack of an established practice under many securities, tax and other regulatory regimes in
Croatia and new regulations may be subject to contradictory, ambiguous or changing interpretations by the
Croatian regulatory authorities. Consequently, companies operating in the region may face tax, securities and
other regulatory compliance related risks that may be less predictable than in countries with more stable
regulatory systems.
As a result of EU membership, Croatia may be eligible to receive financial assistance from EU structural
funds pursuant to the EU Cohesion Policy. However, there is no guarantee that Croatia will meet the criteria
to receive disbursements under these funds or that such funds would be available or the timing of any such
disbursements (see "The Economy -- Economic Policy -- EU Structural Funds").
Following accession to the EU, Croatia's economy is exposed to increased competition with other EU
Member States (a "Member State"). As part of its EU accession, Croatia also exited from the Central
European Free Trade Agreement ("CEFTA") - a trade agreement between the non-EU countries in Southeast
Europe, which previously accounted for a significant portion of Croatia's exports, particularly in the
agriculture and food industries. Croatia's trade with its non-EU trade partners now relies on each country's
respective Stabilisation and Association Agreement ("SSA"), which is each such country's bilateral trade
agreement with the EU. Following accession to the EU, Croatia's trade with CEFTA countries declined,
specifically in agro-food exports. In addition, as a result of EU accession Croatia is also required to
significantly reduce the level of domestic subsidies to the agriculture sector (see "The Economy --
Government Subsidies").
Croatia will be eligible to adopt the euro once it fulfils the necessary conditions. Croatia entered the Exchange
Rate Mechanism ("ERM II") on 10 July 2020. Under ERM II, the exchange rate of a non-euro area Member
State is fixed against the euro and is only allowed to fluctuate within set limits. Entry into ERM II is based
on an agreement between the ministers and central bank governors of the non-euro area Member State and
the euro area Member States, and the European Central Bank (the "ECB"). Entry into ERM II was a first step
towards the full adoption of the euro in Croatia, in line with Croatia's commitment pursuant to the treaty for
Croatia's accession into the EU. On 27 May 2019, the Republic of Croatia submitted a request to the ECB
for the establishment of a close cooperation between the ECB and the Croatian National Bank in the exercise
of supervisory tasks over credit institutions within the Single Supervisory Mechanism ("SSM"). On 4 July
2019, the Republic of Croatia sent a letter of intent to the euro area member states, Denmark and EU
institutions expressing its intent to enter the ERM II. This marked the first formal step towards the Republic
of Croatia's joining the ERM II, which precedes the introduction of the euro as a country's official currency.
The letter of intent was accompanied by an Action Plan detailing the reforms that the Republic of Croatia
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would implement before entering the ERM II (the "Action Plan"). The Republic of Croatia successfully
passed and implemented the agreed measures from the Action Plan and formally informed the institutions
and the ERM II parties by submitting its final report on implementation in June 2020. On 10 July 2020, the
Republic of Croatia formally entered the ERM II. Croatia's entry into the eurozone, will primarily depend on
Croatia's macroeconomic indicators, i.e. its ability to fulfil a set of membership criteria which are more
stringent than those applied to previous candidates. The policy measures required to meet such criteria,
adoption of the euro could each result in adverse macroeconomic effects on Croatia's economy and lead to
lower rates of, or negative, economic growth.
Croatia's economy remains vulnerable to both internal and external economic shocks as a result of the
global Coronavirus pandemic
Since the beginning of 2020, the outbreak and ongoing spread of the Coronavirus (the "Coronavirus
pandemic"), also known as COVID-19, has escalated into a global pandemic resulting in the implementation
of stringent travel and transport restrictions, quarantines and extended shutdowns of certain businesses
globally, including in Croatia, in an attempt to contain the continued spread of the virus. On 11 March 2020,
the Government declared an extraordinary epidemic "state of emergency" due to the Coronavirus outbreak
(the "State of Emergency"). On 19 March 2020, the Government made a decision to implement strict
measures in an attempt to stay ahead of the spread of the Coronavirus including: instituting restrictions on
social gatherings and work in trade and service activities, including food and beverage service activities,
temporarily halting border crossing for the Republic of Croatia; cancelling all sporting, cultural and other
large public events; and the closing all educational institutions, sport facilities recreational areas and
children's activity centres. The Coronavirus pandemic reached its initial peak in the second quarter of 2020,
allowing many countries to ease or suspend their restrictive measures in the summer months of 2020.
However, COVID-19 continued to spread internationally. In December 2020, new variants of the
Coronavirus were detected in numerous countries. As of January 2021, the Coronavirus pandemic was
detected in more than 200 countries and territories. The continued spread of the Coronavirus pandemic
through the second half of 2020 and into 2021, has forced many governments, including that of the Republic,
to reinstitute their series of restrictive measures in an attempt to slow and limit the spread of COVID-19. The
duration of these health measures is dependent upon the effectiveness and efficiency of coping with the
current situation both domestically and internationally.
The country's real gross domestic product ("GDP") is estimated to decline by 8.9 per cent. in 2020. In the
first nine months of 2020, domestic demand declined by 5.2 per cent., reflecting Croatian households'
precautionary savings as social distancing and increased unemployment led to a drop in private consumption
and increased uncertainty resulted in business delayed investment decisions. The external sector contribution
to GDP was negative as lower external demand, global supply chain disruptions and restricted international
travel led to a decline in the exports of goods and services by approximately 29.8 per cent. in the first nine
months of 2020. The accommodation and food service activities, the arts, entertainment and recreation and
the transport sectors were the primary economic sectors directly impacted by the state of emergency measures
as a result of a decrease in demand.
As noted above, the restrictive travel and quarantine measures currently in place globally may continue to
have an adverse effect on Croatia's tourism sector beyond the expiration of said measures. While the
Government has implemented numerous measures to address the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on the
country's tourism industry, there is no guarantee that the Government's measures will be effective or that
tourists will return in similar numbers compared to before the Coronavirus pandemic. For more information,
see "The Economy ­ Coronavirus ­ Measures to assist the economy due to the Coronavirus pandemic". The
reduction in tourism has had a materially negative effect on the financial condition of Croatia, and a sustained
gap in tourism may increase this effect or delay Croatia's recovery. Moreover, no assurance can be made as
to the negative impacts of the Coronavirus pandemic continue, whether in Croatia or globally and the ongoing
impact remains highly uncertain.
In addition, the Coronavirus pandemic is expected to impact the labour market in 2021. The number of
employed workers decreased in 2020, and the unemployment rate reached 7.0 per cent. as compared to 6.6
per cent. in 2019. Employers are expected to adjust to the lower economic activity through reduction of
workers or a reduction in hours for workers. These outcomes could result in lower revenues from social
security contributions and higher expenditure on social security benefits. Even with the Government's
preventative measures to mitigate the potential economic impact of the Coronavirus pandemic, the
Coronavirus pandemic could have an adverse effect on the funds available to social security and healthcare
services in Croatia in the future.
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On 17 March 2020 and 2 April 2020, the Government adopted two comprehensive and targeted packages of
economic measures to mitigate the Coronavirus pandemic's negative impact on economic activity. The goal
of these measures was to help the private sector, as the bearer of economic activity, to overcome the crisis
through job preservation and payment of salaries and to solve the liquidity problems of those business
activities, which have been reduced by the Coronavirus pandemic. For more information on these measures
and policies see "The Economy ­ Coronavirus ­ Measures to assist the economy due to the Coronavirus
pandemic". The combined impact of the slowdown in economic activity and the cost of such measures has
had a material negative impact on the Government's budget. As a result of the Coronavirus pandemic,
Government expenditures increased significantly while budget revenues decreased, resulting in the
Government's need to amend the initial 2020 State Budget in May 2020. For more information see, "The
Economy ­ Functioning of the public finance system and the sustainability of public services financing". As
a result, Croatia's deficit increased in 2020, requiring both reductions in other spending and external
financing. Moreover, the debt/GDP ratio is expected to rise to 87.3 per cent. and 85.3 per cent. in 2020 and
2021, respectively. In addition, the Croatian National Bank ("CNB") implemented, within its mandate,
numerous measures aimed at both preserving the stability of the banking system and strengthening its
flexibility to reduce the adverse effects on households and companies from the restrictions caused by
Coronavirus pandemic. No assurance may be given that the Government's deficit and public debt will not
increase more than expected, on the availability of external financing and the terms of such financing or that
the Government's measures will be sufficient to limit the negative economic effects of the Coronavirus
pandemic and, after its end, to put Croatia's economy on a path to recovery, which in turn may have a negative
effect on the financial condition of the Issuer.
Accordingly, Croatia's economy and its capacity to repay principal and/or interest on the Notes may be
adversely affected as a result of issues arising from the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic, including the impact
on Croatia's public finances or linked to an economic slowdown in the Eurozone or owing to a prolonged
recession or depression in the global economy.
Croatia's economy remains vulnerable to external shocks and internal economic challenges which could
have an adverse effect on Croatia's economic growth and its ability to service its public debt
Croatia's economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, including the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic,
see "-- Croatia's economy remains vulnerable to both internal and external economic shocks as a result of
the global Coronavirus pandemic", as well as the earthquakes in Zagreb and Petrinja in 2020, see "The
Economy ­ Earthquakes", which negatively affected the Croatian economy, and the ongoing political turmoil
in certain emerging markets as well as the continuing uncertainty regarding certain Member States.
Croatia continues to face a number of economic challenges including low worker participation, deleveraging
of the private sector and large infrastructural damage and additional pressure public services. Even if the
global economy recovers in the future following the Coronavirus pandemic, the recovery may not be
sustained and may reverse. Unfavourable demographic trends (i.e. ageing population, emigration of skilled
workers and/or declining workforce) could have negative implications for economic growth and fiscal policy.
This could have a material adverse effect on Croatia's ability to repay principal and make payments of interest
on the Notes and on Croatia's credit rating.
Depreciation in the kuna may adversely affect the Croatian economic and financial condition
A significant portion (approximately 72 per cent.) of Croatia's public external debt and domestic debt is
denominated in or linked to foreign currencies. In addition, government guarantees are denominated in or linked
to foreign currency. In the event of foreign currency fluctuations, and a depreciation of the kuna relative to the
U.S. dollar, the euro or the Swiss franc, the negative impact on the service obligations in respect of the debt
denominated in foreign currencies will likely not be offset by any positive impact on the service obligations in
respect of debt denominated in kuna. Any significant depreciation of the kuna may have an adverse effect on
the Republic's ability to repay its debt denominated in foreign currencies, including the amounts due under the
Notes. The CNB has intervened in the foreign currency as part of its policy of pursuing a stable euro/kuna
exchange rate, as a result of depreciation during volatile market conditions resulting from the Coronavirus
pandemic. The depreciation of the kuna against foreign currencies may negatively affect the capacity of
corporate and household borrowers to repay their debt and as a result adversely affect the financial and economic
condition of Croatia. (See "Monetary Developments, International Reserves and Financial System -- Monetary
Policy and Instruments").
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The further proliferation of the euro in the Croatian economy may adversely affect the CNB's ability to
implement its monetary policies
In recent years, the role of the euro in the Croatian economy and circulation of the euro in Croatia
substantially increased as a result of sizeable euro capital inflows from abroad, including from persons
working abroad who send money to their families in Croatia; the tourism industry, in particular the
population's willingness to accept euro from tourists; and the fact that a majority of corporate and household
loans are euro-denominated or euro-indexed. As the Government's domestic monetary policy mostly impacts
the kuna and has limited impact on other currencies including the euro, the further proliferation of the euro
in the Croatian economy and widespread use of euro by the population may undermine the ability of the CNB
to implement its monetary policies. Similarly, the policies of the ECB affecting the euro are likely to
indirectly impact the Croatian economy. Any limitations on the ability of the CNB to implement its monetary
policies may have an adverse effect on the Croatian economy and thus on the ability of Croatia to repay
principal and make payments of interest on the Notes.
The current account balance may deteriorate
Croatia's current account deficit has declined gradually since 2008 and recorded surpluses in each year since
2014, although this trend reversed in 2020 due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Nevertheless, as a small, open
economy, Croatia's current account balance is significantly affected by its trade balance and any future negative
changes in the trade balance and the current account balance could have an adverse effect on the Croatian
economy and thus on the ability of Croatia to repay principal and make payments of interest on the Notes.
If Government revenue decreases, some or all of the Government's expenditure reduction plans prove
insufficient or additional spending is required, and state-owned enterprises' dependence on public
finances is not reduced, Croatia may not be able to service its public debt and, as a result, to repay principal
and make payments of interest on the Notes
Without on-going and sufficient structural reforms aimed at reducing the dependence of state-owned
enterprises on public finances and at fostering greater economic efficiency through broader private sector
participation, revenue raising measures could prove inadequate. The Government's ability to make payments
may become further affected by economic cyclical trends. Lower than expected growth would have a negative
impact on budget revenue and would increase the Government deficit. With the resulting negative implications
due to the Coronavirus pandemic, as well as the earthquake in Zagreb, Government expenditures increased
significantly and revenues decreased requiring a revised 2020 Budget. This negative impact continued through
2020, with the ongoing spread of the Coronavirus pandemic and Croatia's second earthquake in Petrinja in
2020, resulting in an estimated general government deficit of 8.0 per cent. of GDP following the Government's
adoption of a comprehensive package of measure to help the economy, see "The Economy ­ Functioning of
the public finance system and the sustainability of public services financing". Moreover, as noted above
demographic trends, including an ageing population, are likely to limit the ability of the Croatian government
to reduce expenditures.
Taken as a whole, reduced revenue, coupled with high expenses related to public wages, social benefits,
interest payments, healthcare system, pensions and subsidies, may adversely affect Croatia's ability to repay
principal and make payments of interest on the Notes.
There can be no assurance that Croatia's credit ratings will not change
The long term foreign and domestic currency debt of the Republic is currently rated BBB- (stable outlook)
by S&P and Ba1 (stable outlook) by Moody's and BBB- (stable outlook) by Fitch. There can be no guarantee
that the Republic will not experience credit downgrades or negative revisions to the outlook. Deterioration
in key economic indicators or the materialisation of any of the risks discussed herein may contribute to credit
rating downgrades. Any adverse changes in an applicable credit rating or credit rating outlook could
adversely affect the trading price for the Notes. In addition, negative ratings action could adversely affect
Croatia's ability to refinance existing indebtedness or finance its deficit and could affect payment of principal
and interest under the Notes.
Croatia may not be able to refinance its debt on favourable terms or at all
Croatia has substantial amounts of internal and external public debt. As at 31 December 2019, the general
Government debt stood at HRK 292.4 billion (72.7 per cent. of GDP) and Government guarantees stood at
HRK 4.4 billion (1.1 per cent. of GDP), for a total amount of HRK 296.8 billion or 73.8 per cent. of GDP.
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